 Printer-friendly version
(Please check against delivery)
Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon.
Let me begin by thanking the Canadian Club for giving me this opportunity to speak on a subject that means a great deal to me. That subject is young people. A huge subject and a tall order!
This afternoon, I’d like for us all to climb aboard a very special shuttle, a shuttle that lets us travel through time. Watch your step! Our destination is Quebec in the year 2025. And thanks to technology, we’re already there. We land in Montreal, a beautiful city, one of the most dynamic in North America. A clean city, a city that’s great to live in. A city with efficient infrastructures that attract delegations from around the world who marvel at the progress we’ve accomplished in such a short time. A city whose population is growing, where young people have access to high-quality jobs networked with the world’s best in the most cutting-edge fields. A city where poverty is nearly nonexistent. A thriving city because its businesses are integrated with the world leaders in value creation. Montreal, the dynamic metropolis of a Quebec whose population is highly educated, whose health care services are highly effective and whose productivity is such that two workers easily manage to provide service support for a senior age 65 or older.
A fantasy, some will say. No, say I. For my part, I prefer to speak of a great dream that we, together, can make come true if we really want to. How? By transforming our dream into a project for the future. And what does that mean? Setting ourselves demanding but realistic goals. Giving ourselves schedules. Refusing to accept failure. And, above all, tying our project to the next generation, the generation for which we will transform Quebec into a huge, well-ordered work site. In short, we should stop talking and start taking action with a serious plan.
The first step in achieving our project for the future is to identify the real challenges that we must overcome together.
I have identified four major challenges: the debt and the tax burden; the demographic imperative; productivity; and education. There are others, of course. But these four give us plenty to chew on and will have a profound effect on our young people.
First, the debt and the tax burden.
According to Pierre Fortin, Quebec’s level of indebtedness as a percentage of GDP is the fifth highest among the OECD countries. Only Japan, Greece, Italy and Belgium are deeper in debt than we are.
Instead of quibbling over figures, let’s at the very least acknowledge that a problem exists. The debt we are carrying undermines our ability to take action. To take action through the government, through our companies or as individuals. To take action in education, health care or family policy. To take action to renew our infrastructures. To take action in every area that underpins successful, prosperous societies. Today, interest payments on the debt are the Quebec government’s third largest item of expenditure. Every year, we pour down the interest-payment drain the equivalent of more than half of what we allot for education. Let’s call things by their real names: the debt is the bill we’ll be leaving to our children even as we yield our place to them. As things stand now, it is a huge gap in our legacy.
Our extremely heavy tax burden is one of the consequences of our level of indebtedness. It is among the heaviest in North America. Yet our level of wealth is among the lowest. According to Alain Dubuc, it is 54th among the 60 states and provinces in North America.
With a debt like ours, it’s hard to believe that the dream I described a few minutes ago will come true. Unless things change soon, we are creating a serious problem of intergenerational equity. We will deny our young people the possibility of making their own choices. The reality will then be very different from the vision of Quebec in 2025 that I painted at the start.
Second, the demographic imperative.
We are one of the most rapidly aging societies on the planet. It’s not aging that’s the problem. It’s aging without an adequate succession and without the means necessary to maintain the standard of living to which our children are entitled.
An aging population also means having fewer persons of working age. Quebec currently has five persons of working age for each person age 65 or over. Around 2025 to 2030, when the young people now in school have entered the workforce, there will be only two workers for each person 65 and over. In demographic terms, 25 years is tomorrow morning. The result? Fewer people to pay for program funding: education, health care, family affairs, servicing the debt and all the others. And bear in mind that four Quebecers out of ten currently don’t pay income tax.
The already heavy burden on those who do pay income taxes will be borne by fewer and fewer persons. This means that, in addition to having an unreasonably high income tax bill, our young people will have less and less political clout. Less and less influence on the political decisions that affect them directly. Not to mention the expected problems with pension funds and the shortage of workers that has begun to be felt in certain industries.
In short, we are looking at a demographic change that is unlikely to provide much support for raising our overall level of wealth. If we do nothing to correct the situation, the prognosis for our project for the future will not be very bright…
Which brings me to my third point: our productivity.
When there are fewer people who can work, those who do work have to be more productive in order to maintain the same standard of living. And much more productive to raise it.
Yet Quebec’s labour productivity is lower than Canada’s, which in turn is much lower the United States’. Between 1997 and 2005, Quebec was the Canadian province with the second lowest increase in productivity, avoiding last place by a mere tenth of a percentage point. So, we are already behind and are falling further behind. That, too, is part of our bequest to our young people. And that, too, is incompatible with our project. It is time to take action.
The main route to increased productivity is education. And that is my fourth point.
To appreciate the importance of education to economic growth, you have only to compare the rank of the most competitive countries with the performance of their educational systems. The World Economic Forum’s competitiveness rankings and the OECD’s rankings for the quality of educational systems are the same: the most competitive countries are also the ones with the best educational and job-training systems. It’s clear to everyone. As columnist Jeffrey Simpson recently noted, it is not by cutting our pay that we will increase our chances of competing with emerging countries. No, we will reach that goal by increasing our knowledge and skills. By innovating. And education equals innovation, as several countries have shown.
Where do we stand? I will not pretend to encapsulate our educational system in a few words. It is clear that we have some impressive accomplishments to our credit. Far from me to deny it. But at the same time we cannot ignore certain less shiny facts. For example, that around 30 percent of our young people do not have a secondary school diploma by age 20. That more than one in every two francophone Quebecers has real-life problems reading and counting. That barely two out of three CÉGEP students in the pre-university stream and only one out of two in the technical stream graduate—and that’s despite their being given an extra year to complete their studies! That barely 40% of each generation obtains a college diploma in Quebec. That our universities are dramatically underfunded. That, in work training, Quebec ranks next to last among Canadian provinces for participation in any kind of continuous training activity. Again, I’m not laying blame. I’m noting. It is here that our dream runs the greatest risk of turning into a nightmare. But let’s remain positive and not throw in the towel.
* * *
Let’s now ask the principle stakeholders how they see all this. We asked CROP to carry out a survey of young Quebecers between the ages of 18 and 34. I will spare you the details and go directly to the main conclusions of the survey, which meets the strictest criteria and whose margin of error is 4%.
First, work.
Young Quebecers hope to have a job that leaves them with free time while providing both autonomy and guidance. They know exactly what they want. They seek significant challenges that draw on their creativity. The younger among them hope to work with a large group of people that changes frequently, and they are open to working outside Quebec and Canada. Networking—working in groups—especially appeals to them, more than, say, a desk job.
Particularly among the youngest, the ideal job does not require the kind of commitment that impinges on leisure time, friends or family, although they do believe that it is necessary to work hard to achieve their goals. Many of these young people do not feel limited to jobs offered in Quebec. They are mobile and are not afraid of going elsewhere to work. They are extremely self-confident. The vast majority believe they’ll get what they want from life. In short, our young people fit very well into our project for the future, for a dynamic, competitive and, above all, innovative Quebec.
Solidarity and social responsibility.
The majority of our young people attach great importance to solidarity and social responsibility. Nearly two out of three feel there is no excuse for homelessness and that everything possible should be done to eliminate poverty. Three out of four say they agree with boycotting products and services from companies that discriminate against their employees. Young people are also very critical of corporations. Only one in three believes corporations are truly trying to find a balance between profits and the public interest. Eight out of ten are of the opinion that industries are in the process of destroying the face of planet Earth.
When it comes to values, family and friends are the top priorities for young Quebecers. Work and money are at the bottom of the list of priorities, though a slight difference is seen among the youngest. Specifically, 18 to 24-year olds attach slightly more importance to work, job success and social standing than do all young people as a group. In other words, we’re talking about dynamic young people who are ready to make the requisite effort to achieve their goals while being socially responsible and having a highly developed sense of ethics. Our project for the future is in good hands!
On to income, then.
Most young people feel that an annual before-tax income of between $40,000 and $80,000 is what they will require to meet their expectations. Slightly more than one in ten places the necessary income level above $100,000. Young men age 18 to 24 and Montrealers are more confident about reaching this annual income level.
How will they reach it? Nearly four out of ten believe they will need to study more. Slightly more than one in ten feels it will be necessary to work more hours. These are probably the most realistic. Nonetheless, nearly three in ten believe they will succeed without taking any special course of action. Adherents of magical thinking? Perhaps…
Who do young people trust?
First and foremost, judicial and public security authorities, that is, judges and police officers. They also tend to trust environmental groups and—let’s take a bow—the captains of industry. They do not trust political figures, that is, politicians and unionists.
How do they react to the aging of the population?
Young people, in particular those who have children, are concerned about the aging of the population. More than two-thirds view the situation as quite or very worrying. However, slightly more than half believe that the anticipated problems are exaggerated. Incidentally, three-quarters feel that the Quebec government will not have the means to provide the necessary services, particularly health-care services, and that they will have to pay more income taxes. Which they object strongly to by a very, very, very wide margin. Only young people in school and those with low incomes are in favour of higher income taxes. In other words, those who don’t pay income tax are willing to have those who do pay more. I’ll let you draw your own conclusions.
What do our young people think about our social model?
We asked young people what type of society they’d like to live in, and we gave them three choices: the Scandinavian model, with high income taxes and a broad range of free public services; the U.S. model, with low income taxes and few services; and the Canadian model, with income taxes somewhere in between and a fairly broad range of public services.
The Scandinavian model was the least popular, preferred mainly by young people with low incomes or in school or born outside Canada. Those who say they prefer this model favour it mainly for its education services. Which leads one to conclude that young people think free education (a service they make heavy use of) is more justified than a free health-care system (which is not yet something that concerns them). Socially minded but also good at math!
The U.S. model is favoured by young people with high incomes. However, it is less appreciated when it comes to providing education services. Overall, we shouldn’t expect young people to spend much time questioning the basic tenants of our society, at least while they aren’t paying much in the way of income taxes. Once that changes, we’ll see…
What do young people think about some of the ways our society works?
Three-quarters of them feel that, for society to function well while economic development continues, businesses need to be regulated with respect to the hiring and dismissal of employees. Once again, solidarity, ethics and social conscience.
Opinions are more divided when it comes to taxing businesses. Two camps, nearly equal in size. On the one hand, there are those who think businesses should be taxed to the fullest. On the other hand, those who feel the opposite approach would create more wealth. One of the interesting things is that they talk about taxing companies once they have created wealth and not while they are working to create it. This is in sharp contrast to much of Quebec’s current tax system, which heavily taxes payrolls and, for the time being, maintains a tax on capital. There’s food for thought here, too. Young people have understood that it’s counterproductive to tax innovation. That’s reassuring!
What about the prickly issue of tuition, which regularly makes the headlines and gives the impression that young people are massively opposed to any change in this area? Well, some will be surprised to learn that 44% of respondents are in favour of a gradual thaw in university tuition fees. Even a thaw that would make it possible to reach the Canadian average in five years. We are far from a timid $50-a-semester increase that generates a forest of protest signs once the weather turns warm. Support for such a thaw is found more among young people who have finished their studies, among those with incomes over $40,000, those who are married and those who practice a profession. Nonetheless, it is wrong to claim that all young people are opposed to any form of tuition increase.
So, overall, young Quebecers have a profile, expectations and attitudes that are fundamentally compatible with our project for the 2025 time horizon. Their replies to the survey allow us to conclude that they would have a hard time with our leaving them an economically weakened society while also asking them to pay our bills—and that’s especially true with respect to health care. They are prepared to work at full capacity in an ethical, innovative and borderless society.
We also asked the Angus Reid firm to poll young people across Canada on some of the same topics we examined in Quebec. Our idea was to check whether young Quebecers’ attitudes differ significantly from those of their counterparts in the rest of the country.
The same basic values were found with respect to work, family, leisure time and the desired type of society. There were, however, some significant differences.
For example, to the question regarding how to reach the income level necessary to meet their needs, fewer young Quebecers incline toward further education. Also, young Quebecers are less likely to have a specific means in mind for reaching their target income level.
Young Quebecers are the most worried about the aging of the population.
Young Quebecers are also opposed by the widest margin to future income tax increases in order to fund public services.
And it is young Quebecers who are by far the most likely to agree with the involvement of the private sector in the health-care field so that those who have the means can obtain the services they desire.
Lastly, it is young Quebecers who are the most in favour of taxing businesses to the fullest possible extent. All the differences I’ve just listed are statistically significant, by the way.
Now, how do our young people compare with the young people in other developed countries?
Generally speaking, young Quebecers are not very different from the young people polled by the New Paradigm firm in 12 countries in Europe, North and South America, the Middle East and Asia. I don’t have the time this noon hour to detail the relevant findings. Suffice it to say that the values associated with the topics relating to liberty, integrity, personal relations, cooperation, innovation, creativity and time off work elicit results for our young people that are similar to those obtained in other countries. Our young people are in tune with young people around the globe.
* * *
These considerations should play a very important role in the design of the workplaces that our organizations will soon be offering to young people, the youngest of whom may prove to be extremely mobile sectorally as well as geographically. In the coming months, I will have the opportunity to discuss all the details of these surveys and of the in-depth analysis we have performed to explain the results.
* * *
Which brings me to the last part of my talk. Aware of the enormous challenges we face and having a good idea of how our young people view the future, I will now discuss several courses of action that are likely to enable us to make our dream of the future come true. I am convinced we can succeed, provided we don’t delude ourselves by rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic in order to appease our conscience. It’s time to take action. There’s not a minute to lose.
First, we have to make education our top priority. In an increasingly competitive world, education is the sine qua non for growing our collective wealth. It is by relying on education that Quebec made huge leaps when it emerged from la Grande noirceur, the “great darkness.” And it is by refocusing on education that we will close the gap that penalizes us today. That means returning—beginning in grade one—to values based on work and success instead of the levelling that produces mediocrity. In secondary school, returning to an environment that is conducive to intellectual work, excelling and the pursuit of success. Guidance counselling that is worthy of its name and enables young people knowingly to make progress toward achieving goals that motivate them to realize their full potential. At college level, institutions that are focused on student performance and advancement based on knowledge acquired in the preceding stages. Adequately funded universities, including contribution at an appropriate level from those who derive the greatest benefit from a university education, the students themselves. Other countries have developed effective education systems. Let’s draw inspiration from their successes instead of trying to reinvent the wheel while sacrificing a generation to each reform that too often leads nowhere and leaves in its wake too many young people ill-equipped to deal with life.
Second, we must, all of us, join forces in a major campaign to raise awareness of the financial, fiscal and demographic issues facing Quebec. Speaking the truth, not beating around the bush, leaving nothing unsaid, trusting in citizens’ ability to appreciate the significance of the challenges. For me, “all of us” means, of course, the government first and foremost, but also business leaders, universities and, more broadly, the intelligentsia who far too often are far too silent in our great debates. We also need to spotlight the guiding principles of our great dream for the future. To explain them to everyone. To clearly draw the links between the actions to take, the desired outcome and the benefits for everyone. Without neglecting the role that everyone will have to play. When properly informed, Quebecers are capable of great things. They lose their fear of change. We have clearly demonstrated that in the past.
Third, establish conditions that are favourable to wealth creation by drawing inspiration from the achievements that have crowned the efforts of other nations. I am thinking specifically of Ireland and other northern European countries like Finland, Austria and Norway. Some U.S. experiences can also inspire us. Open up our economy more to the world. Make innovation the trademark of the Quebec economy. Young people want to demonstrate their creativity; to express themselves at work. They have a strong sense of ethics. They are ready to do what it takes to succeed. Let’s build on these inclinations. If we do so seriously, we can dominate the world. Other countries that don’t have our resources have gone far by taking this route.
Fourth, correcting the flaws in our tax system that penalize effort and are an impediment to innovation for individuals as well as businesses. Young people’s attitudes are promising in this respect. A number already understand that companies create wealth and that it’s important not to hamper their efforts at innovation but rather to tax wealth once created. That, too, can be clearly explained. No geniuses required! The announced elimination of the capital tax is encouraging, although there remain three budgets between now and then, three budgets in which minds can change, can bend to political winds…
Fifth, make a determined effort to pay down the debt that increasingly reduces our room to manoeuvre. To do so, we should rely on our main natural resource, electricity, a bit like Albertans have done with oil. Of course, there are differences between the two situations. Which means going well beyond occasional payments—as symbolic as they are sporadic—to the Generations Fund. Young people will not agree to pay our bills without themselves having access to quality services. Who can blame them?
Sixth, create a reserve to cover the increasing costs related to loss of independence by the members of a rapidly aging population. Several avenues are available to us. But, whichever we choose, be it an insurance plan or another, the important thing is to free young people from a financial burden that it is unfair to place on them. In this case, too, they’ve clearly understood. If we don’t soon take action in this area, a serious social divide awaits us. And the young people will not be the ones at fault. And let’s not forget that they will be a lot more mobile than our generation was at their age.
Seventh, place special importance on creating conditions that will lead to higher productivity. This means speeding up deregulation, better integrating immigrants who can contribute more to our economic development, being faster to adopt new technology, providing massive support for education, especially in the fields of science and technology. Giving our young people access to the latest means for networking among themselves and with their colleagues around the globe. By taking this road we will propel ourselves to the front ranks of world leaders in innovation.
And, eighth, strengthen the job market by favouring more productive, longer work lives in synch with young people’s values. For example, by no longer encouraging part of the productive workforce to take early retirement, as is currently the case. By implementing an integrated family policy that will make working life easier for family members who want to have children and raise them according to their values. By putting new technology to better use to make this possible. Our young people have a strong sense of family. They will not sacrifice their children and spousal relationship to unreasonable job demands whose sole purpose is to further their careers. That they have made crystal clear.
* * *
What do the points I’ve just enumerated have in common?
They form the foundation on which the most innovative societies are built. The ability to innovate is one of the keys to success in today’s world, and that will be even more true in the future. Only by increasing our ability to innovate will we create the wealth we currently lack and come to rank among the societies with the best standards of living in North America. An increased ability to innovate will also enable us to move, a step at a time, from our dream to realizing our great project for the future, of which our young people will be the first beneficiaries.
Another thing all these points have in common is that they speak to the values, behaviours and expectations expressed by our young people regarding work, family and the society they want to help build. By going this route, we can count on the support of our society’s most dynamic forces and give ourselves the best means for succeeding individually and collectively.
As you can see, our young people seek demanding goals and ambitious challenges. They want to make full use of their creativity at and away from work. They are optimistic and believe in their abilities. They wish to have high incomes and don’t doubt they will. They expect to be part of globe-spanning networks and, while naturally open to opportunities that present themselves in Quebec, are not deaf to calls from elsewhere.
* * *
I don’t have time this noon hour to further discuss these many important topics. Our various suggestions are backed by extensive research and consultation and many experiences that I cannot detail now without overrunning my allotted time. However, next fall I will be publishing a book that presents all the studies that have led to these conclusions, the complete results of the surveys conducted, a detailed breakdown of the results, the reasoning behind the proposals I’ve presented to you, and other proposals on which we are working in order to improve our ability to innovate and create wealth.
Quebec has always been at its most powerful when rallying behind a major project, a true social project. Well, here’s one! A project that calls on all Quebecers to lay the groundwork for a desirable future for our children. Is there a stronger motivation than the future of our young people?
I know it is an ambitious project and an enormous undertaking. But our young people deserve the best conditions for realizing their dreams. Together, we will provide them with those conditions.
For our young people, the future is now.
Thank you for your attention.
|
